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Student Vanguard International

Analysis of the Strategic Calculus of Self-Interest and Complex Dynamics between the United States and China

In the past, the escalation of political tensions had minimal impact on a country’s determination to detach economically from another. Yet, in the status quo, if the tensions escalate too much for the countries’ economic relationship to bear, detachment inevitably occurs. This logic stands strong specifically in the specified case of the relationship between the […]

January 14, 2024

In the past, the escalation of political tensions had minimal impact on a country’s determination to detach economically from another. Yet, in the status quo, if the tensions escalate too much for the countries’ economic relationship to bear, detachment inevitably occurs. This logic stands strong specifically in the specified case of the relationship between the United States and China as both are countries of a high-ranking position in the global hegemony – hence, two of the most developed countries in the world who are struggling to rise to the title of “the best” or the “crème de la crème”.

For the last few weeks however, this issue of competition to be at the top was seemingly resolved as the title of a Guardian article reads “‘Planet Earth is big enough for two’: Biden and Xi meet for first time in a year”. This denotes the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit held in the United States on November 18th, 2023.

As CNN states though, “whether that shift is a lasting one for the contentious relationship will be put to an immediate test, however, by comments made by Biden during a solo press conference after the meeting. There, the President reiterated his view that Xi is a “dictator,” which makes the relationship more unstable instead of mending the gaps.”

The United States now needs to balance out the complications regarding striking the balance between trade and political tensions. Political tensions are tightening every second, especially during the APEC summit which was meant to loosen them.

To draw out the current situation regarding the dependency of the United States on trading with China, these are the statistics that the ‘Bureau of Industry and Services (BIS)’ of the United States government provides as of 2022. “In 2022, both U.S. exports to China and imports from China continued to grow for a third year in a row. U.S. exports totaled $153.8 billion, an increase of 1.6% ($2.4 billion) from 2021; U.S. imports from China totaled $536.8 billion, an increase of 6.3% ($31.8 billion).”

Despite the United State’s reliance on Chinese imports and trade with China, the United States government is imposing policies to regulate trade due to societal pressure. This looked like Biden “retaining some $360 billion worth of tariffs imposed under Trump … as Biden has sanctioned Chinese individuals associated with human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, threatened to remove Chinese companies collectively worth an estimated $2.4 trillion from U.S. stock exchanges, and introduced unprecedented export controls that restrict Beijing’s ability to obtain advanced technology.” (The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship, 2022) Yet, as society views this from an entirely objective lens, society is justified to question whether that is truly what the United States wants if we disregard the external factors that may have forced them to take such action.

One reason to suspect the United States for their pressured action is the fact that tariffs bring an unwanted visitor with them – internal turmoil. This is a backlash that is not in the government’s interest at all. Due to the large diversified population inhabiting all fifty states of the US, the demand for a certain product is going to be immense. This is when immense amounts of supply are needed to neutralize the immense amount of demand. The extreme tariffs and regulations that the US imposed led to increased costs when it came to the originally cheap goods that China exported. Incalculable amounts of inflation will plague society because the prices skyrocket as supply won’t match the demand anymore. It is concerning that the government is willing to trade this in return for “protecting American workers and businesses” (U.S. Relations With China – United States Department of State, 2021). To meet the expectations of the people and stimulate the global supply chains enough so there can be fluid circulation – trade with China is essential.

The conclusion comes down to a threefold logic. The United States and China, currently the two most influential countries in the world, have had a relationship built upon trade and political relations in international organizations. However, due to political clashes (values, ideologies, systems), the United States government is currently imposing tariffs and cutting off relations. Society and I question the legitimacy of this claim that it aligns with the interest of the US government itself based upon a few reasons: internal turmoil being the focus of my argumentation. Whether it is in the interest of either one of the countries to resume or end trade with each other doesn’t matter. If the tensions escalate too much for the countries’ economic relationship to bear, detachment will inevitably occur. Stopping the tensions from elevating or mitigating and dealing with the causes of the ceased relationship is up to the decisions of both countries.

Bibliography (APA, 7th edition)

2022 Statistical Analysis of U.S. Trade with China. (n.d.). 2022 Statistical Analysis of U.S. Trade With China. https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/country-papers/3268-2022-statistical-analysis-of-u-s-trade-with-china

The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship. (2022, November 4). The Contentious U.S.-China Trade Relationship | Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/contentious-us-china-trade-relationship

McCarthy, S., & CNN. (2023, November 16). Analysis: Xi signals marked shift in tone for China on US – but with Biden’s off-the-cuff “dictator” comment can it last? CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/16/china/china-us-relations-xi-biden-meeting-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

U.S. Relations With China – United States Department of State. (2021, May 12). United States Department of State. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-china/

How Trade with China Benefits the United States. (2023, February 17). US-China Business Council. https://www.uschina.org/how-trade-china-benefits-united-states

Core Values. (n.d.). Core Values. https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/rm/rls/dosstrat/2007/html/82948.htm