The year 2024 is a crucial period for global democracy, with an unprecedented number of countries heading to the polls in what has been termed the “Global Election Supercycle.” More than 76 countries, representing over 51% of the world’s population, will hold elections this year, making it one of the most politically charged years in recent history . This confluence of elections will determine the future of many nations, testing the resilience of democratic institutions, exposing the weaknesses of autocratic regimes, and influencing global geopolitics for years to come.
While some countries will see elections that serve as routine democratic exercises, others will face highly contentious and transformative political struggles. The stakes are particularly high in regions marked by authoritarian rule, internal conflict, and social unrest. This article delves into the major elections happening in 2024, analyzing the dynamics at play in key regions such as the United States, the European Union, Latin America, and parts of Africa and Asia. It also examines the global implications of these political shifts and their potential impact on international relations and democratic norms.
The United States and the European Union, two of the world’s largest democratic blocs, are both holding critical elections in 2024. The U.S. presidential election, already marred by unprecedented polarization, will be a decisive moment for the country’s democratic trajectory. Former President Donald Trump is once again a leading candidate, despite the controversies surrounding his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. His presence in the race has polarized the electorate and put the integrity of the electoral process under scrutiny.
The Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, is aiming to secure another term for her party, but faces an uphill battle. The election is not only a referendum on her administration’s handling of economic issues and social justice reforms but also on the broader state of American democracy. With a significant portion of the electorate believing that the 2020 election was stolen and a surge in political violence reported in recent years, the stakes have never been higher. The U.S. election is likely to have a profound impact on global perceptions of democracy, influencing democratic backsliding or consolidation worldwide.
Meanwhile, the European Union will hold its parliamentary elections in June 2024, a vote that will determine the future political direction of the continent. The rise of far-right and populist movements in countries like Italy, France, and Hungary threatens to destabilize the political balance within the EU, challenging the bloc’s commitments to liberal values and integration. The results of this election could alter the EU’s stance on critical issues such as migration, economic policy, and relations with Russia and the United States.
In Latin America, 2024 is poised to be a transformative year, as several key countries face elections that could reshape the political landscape. In Argentina, the recent victory of Javier Milei, a self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist, has already sent shockwaves through the region. Milei’s rise is emblematic of a broader trend in Latin American politics, where voters disillusioned by traditional parties are turning to anti-establishment figures with radical platforms. Milei’s presidency is expected to bring significant changes to Argentina’s economic and foreign policies, potentially disrupting regional alliances.
Mexico, the second-largest economy in Latin America, will elect its first female president in 2024. The two main contenders, Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party and Xóchitl Gálvez of the opposition coalition, represent starkly different visions for the country’s future. Sheinbaum, a close ally of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is expected to continue his policies of economic nationalism and social reform, while Gálvez is campaigning on a platform of transparency, anti-corruption, and economic liberalization . The outcome of this election will be a critical indicator of the region’s political direction and could influence Mexico’s relations with the United States.
Brazil, under the leadership of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will not hold national elections in 2024 but will play a pivotal role in shaping the regional agenda as the host of the G20 summit. Lula has positioned Brazil as a leader in advocating for sustainable development and social justice, contrasting sharply with the radical approaches of neighboring countries. His leadership in the G20 will be closely watched as a barometer for Latin America’s broader political orientation.
In stark contrast to the competitive elections in democracies, many of the 2024 elections in authoritarian and hybrid regimes are expected to be tightly controlled affairs aimed at consolidating power rather than fostering genuine democratic participation. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is poised to secure another term, with the outcome virtually predetermined. However, the war in Ukraine has weakened his domestic standing, and the election could serve as a flashpoint for political dissent and unrest.
Similarly, in Iran, the parliamentary elections will take place amidst a backdrop of economic crisis and widespread discontent. The regime, facing ongoing protests and calls for reform, is likely to use the elections to project an image of stability and legitimacy. However, with low voter turnout expected and reformist candidates marginalized, the election is unlikely to address the underlying causes of Iran’s political instability.
Other countries, such as Belarus, Rwanda, and Algeria, are expected to see elections used as instruments of repression. Leaders in these countries will employ a mix of coercion, propaganda, and strategic concessions to maintain their grip on power. These elections, while superficially democratic, will reinforce authoritarian rule and further alienate citizens, increasing the risk of future instability.
Africa will also be a focal point in the 2024 global election cycle. Several countries, including Zimbabwe, Nigeria, and Kenya, are slated to hold elections that will test the strength of their democratic institutions. In Nigeria, recent political reforms have aimed to increase transparency and reduce electoral fraud, but the persistence of ethnic tensions and violent extremism could undermine the electoral process.
In Kenya, President William Ruto’s administration will be closely watched as the country navigates its first election since the 2022 post-election violence. The stability of Kenya, a key regional player, will have implications for the broader East African region, especially in relation to the ongoing conflicts in Ethiopia and Somalia.
Zimbabwe’s election, meanwhile, will be a litmus test for the country’s fledgling democracy. After decades of authoritarian rule under Robert Mugabe, the country is attempting to build a more open political system. However, reports of voter suppression and intimidation suggest that old habits die hard, and the international community will be closely monitoring the situation.
Asia’s elections in 2024 will highlight the region’s diverse political landscape, ranging from vibrant democracies like India to tightly controlled autocracies like Myanmar. India, the world’s largest democracy, will hold general elections in April and May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to secure a third term. Modi’s consolidation of power has raised concerns about democratic backsliding, as critics accuse his government of undermining civil liberties and suppressing dissent.
In contrast, Myanmar is set for a deeply flawed election under the shadow of military rule. The junta, which took power in a coup in 2021, has been fighting a civil war against pro-democracy forces and ethnic armed groups. The election, if held, will likely serve as a façade for military control rather than a step toward genuine political reconciliation.
The 2024 Global Election Supercycle will not only shape the internal dynamics of the countries involved but will also have profound implications for international relations and the future of democracy. As established democracies grapple with internal polarization and rising populism, and authoritarian regimes use elections to entrench their power, the global trend toward democratic backsliding could accelerate.
For the international community, supporting democratic resilience and promoting electoral integrity will be critical. Organizations like the United Nations, the European Union, and the African Union will need to step up their efforts to monitor elections, provide technical assistance, and respond to electoral violence and fraud. Meanwhile, civil society organizations and independent media will play a crucial role in holding governments accountable and ensuring that the voice of the people is heard.
The outcomes of these elections will resonate far beyond 2024, shaping the global order and determining the balance between democratic governance and authoritarianism in the decades to come. In this defining year, the world will witness a fierce struggle over the very meaning of democracy, with consequences that will be felt by all.